Congress' graph is certainly on decline due to series of scams, indecision towards economic reforms, lack of leadership and other factors like aggressive campaign of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev against government. Does this mean gain for BJP???? This is the big question.
If we have a look at 2009 polls results, Congress is set to loose in Andhra pradesh due to Jagan, Trs factor. It will also loose certain amount of seats in rajasthan as it swept 20 seats out of 25 seats last time. It might loose some seats in UP (21 Seats in 2009 polls) and Delhi(all 7 seats in 2009 polls). It will also find tough to retain seats gained last time in Maharasthra due to Vidarbha factor. It might also loose seats in Tamil nadu (won 8 seats in 2009) and Haryana where it got 9 seats out of 10 last time. Congress is set to gain in Karnataka and states like Jharkhand.
BJP is set to gain in states like UP but only marginaly considering last assembly elections' results. BJP is set to gain in smaller states like Haryana, Uttarakhand(where congress won all 5 seats in 2009 polls) and Delhi where it has recently won Municipal Elections. BJP might gain in Maharasthra and Rajasthan but does that increase BJP's numbers significanly? Going with these trends congress will be around 140 seats and BJP just marginaly ahead with 150 seats.This is due to the fact that BJP wont be able to catch up on congress' loss in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
It will be difficult for BJP to form government with these numbers, given limited number of allies BJP has on current day. To form government it needs repeat of 1999 elections, where it got 7 seats in Andhra Pradesh, swept all seats in Haryana with the help of INLD, got 4 seats in Tamil Nadu, swept Delhi.
So, it will be tough and close fight between BJP and Congress in 2014 elections according to my verdict, although lot of work can be done by all the parties since there are roughly 2 years left for the General Elections.Forming good alliances before 2014 elections will be the key........
If we have a look at 2009 polls results, Congress is set to loose in Andhra pradesh due to Jagan, Trs factor. It will also loose certain amount of seats in rajasthan as it swept 20 seats out of 25 seats last time. It might loose some seats in UP (21 Seats in 2009 polls) and Delhi(all 7 seats in 2009 polls). It will also find tough to retain seats gained last time in Maharasthra due to Vidarbha factor. It might also loose seats in Tamil nadu (won 8 seats in 2009) and Haryana where it got 9 seats out of 10 last time. Congress is set to gain in Karnataka and states like Jharkhand.
(Disclaimer:The analysis and writing are based on my estimates, results will vary..)
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